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Mining operations

Take the right decision,
for the right reasons.

Finance and Operations come at procurement from opposite ends. RiskOpex gives them a single framework: the same financial terms, set before the decision and on record after.

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Many perspectives. One platform.

For you personally

Present the case in terms Finance and Operations understand and support.

The job is taking the right risks, managing uncertainty and being able to measure the benefits.

The right outcome for your team, justified.

For the business

Decisions based on the whole business and bottom line, not limited to a silo.

Consistent decisions quantifying uncertainty, across sites and teams, in one framework.

A clear financial picture of control cost effectiveness.

Complex decisions. Clear options.

Three real examples, re-modelled with public data.

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RiskOpex
To avoid $5M in wear and a risk that went unquantified, the de-rate cut output by $250M.
A Cat 789 fleet, configured to underperform. KPIs measuring faults and maintenance drove strong protections costing production. The fix was framed as avoiding faults, with no numbers put on how likely they were, or what they'd cost. Set against that: the de-rate gives up $250M a year, for certain; restoring spec costs $5M of wear plus a small fault risk. Even in the worst plausible year, the fix costs a fraction of the de-rate.
Two ways to run the fleet — what each costs the business a year $250M $200M $150M $100M $50M 0 $250M fixed loss Keep the de-rate today · revenue forgone, every year $5M fixed cost $8.75M average at risk $13M worst at risk 1-in-100 Restore OEM spec The de-rate gives up $250M of revenue every year, for certain — to save $5M of wear.
Keep the
de-rate		Restore
OEM spec
Certain each year$250M
revenue forgone		$5M
extra wear
At risk each year—$3.75M
5 faults, expected
Worst plausible year—$13M
11 faults, 1-in-100
Net average vs today—$241M a year better
The de-rate weighed a $5M wear cost against a fear of faults — with neither the odds of those faults nor the output it gave up ever put in numbers. Measured, restoring spec pays even on the pessimistic forecast; in the event, the faults never came.
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RiskOpex
Two operating models, one noisy and predictable, the other quiet and high risk. Which costs more?
Smart infrastructure with remote support genuinely reduced minor outages and saved about $18K a year of business interruption. But it removed the on-site repairs that keep a control outage from outlasting manual control — doubling the odds of a $1B freeze, from 1-in-200 to 1-in-100. The case was decided on the $20K line. The billion-dollar line was left off the table.
Three ways to run process-control support — what each costs a year Cost each year — fixed, average, and the worst plausible year. $10M $7.5M $5M $2.5M 0 worst plausible year — a $1B freeze (breaks the scale): $242K fixed $5.2M average worst $1B 1-in-200 Standard, on-site IT today $669K fixed $10.7M average worst $1B 1-in-100 HA, remote support proposed · twice as likely to freeze $969K fixed $6M average worst $1B 1-in-200 HA, specialists on site —
Standard,
on-site IT		HA, remote
support		HA, specialists
on site
Certain each year$242K$669K$969K
Everyday outages
what the case was argued on		$20K
6 a year		$2K
cut to 0.5 a year		$2K
cut to 0.5 a year
The freeze
what decides it		$5M
1-in-200		$10M
1-in-100, doubled		$5M
1-in-200
All-in each year$5.2M$10.7M$6M

A 50% discount isn't the question.

The vendor that caused the largest IT outage in history offers half price to renew. But once the numbers are in, cost is close across the options — within about $60K a year. What actually differs is the shape of the year that goes wrong.

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RiskOpex
Half price from the vendor that took the world down. Is that even the question?
The discount frames the decision around price. But once the numbers are in, the options cost about the same — within $60K a year. What actually differs is which tail you carry into a bad year.
Three ways to cover 2,000 users — what each costs a year Cost each year — fixed, average, and the worst plausible year. $12.5M $10M $7.5M $5M $2.5M 0 $336K fixed $566K average $2.3M worst 1-in-30 Renew, 50% off today · + a $750K outage 1-in-30 $275K fixed $505K average $2.3M worst 1-in-30 Switch to Microsoft tiered · EDR across the fleet $181K fixed $558K average $12.7M worst 1-in-60 Switch, cut corners no EDR for 1,500
Renew,
50% off		Microsoft,
tiered		Microsoft,
cut corners
Certain each year$336K$275K$181K
At risk each year$230K$230K$377K
Worst plausible year$2M breach
1-in-30
+ $750K outage
1-in-30		$2M breach
1-in-30		$12.5M breach
1-in-60
All-in each year$566K$505K$558K

What you walk away with.

Control spend you can defend
See which controls earn their keep and which are dead spend
One picture across your sites
The same method, the same answer, wherever you operate
Decisions justified
The rationale is on record before the outcome is known

Not for compliance — for the business.

Box-ticking doesn't protect the business. Here is what risk management looks like when it isn't doing its job:

Inconsistent decisions across sites

Same risk, a different answer site to site

Risk matrices that don't help you decide

A grid of colours won't tell you what to do

Risk-control spend you can't defend

Real money committed, no proof it was the right call

Approvals that don't show the reasoning

Signed off, with nothing to show the thinking behind it

Who's behind RiskOpex.

Paul Young

Paul Young

Co-founder & Chief Technology Officer
25+ years in mining operations, risk, and digital transformation. Rio Tinto, Newcrest Mining, and 11 years at Centerra Gold — rising to Director of Digital Mines across operations in Canada, the US, Türkiye, and Kyrgyzstan.
Johannes Chudoba

Johannes Chudoba

Co-founder & Chief Strategy Officer
30+ years called in to fix what others couldn't in Croatia, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Nigeria — and a dozen more. From 2014, in mining: strategic planning, risk and digital transformation for Centerra Gold in Kyrgyzstan and Türkiye.
Mining trucks

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